Design Highlights
- Real GDP growth during Trump’s first year matched Obama’s average, raising questions about long-term sustainability and optimism.
- Job creation surged with 2.3 million jobs added in the first two years but showed significant weakness by 2025.
- Tax cuts resulted in a $270 billion revenue shortfall, exacerbating federal deficits and increasing debt projections by $3.7 trillion.
- Despite low unemployment rates, the job market stagnated, with manufacturing experiencing a year-over-year decline by late 2025.
- Tariffs aimed at boosting manufacturing did not reverse job losses in the sector, revealing volatility and instability in economic policies.
Was it a booming economy or just an overhyped mirage? That question loomed large over the first twelve months of Trump’s presidency. Real GDP growth outpaced the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projections, sure, but it matched the 2.6% average of the last eleven quarters of the Obama administration.
Was it a booming economy or just an overhyped mirage? The first year of Trump’s presidency raised plenty of eyebrows.
So, what’s the real deal? A sugar rush from tax cuts? Well, it faded fast. By 2018, revenues were short $270 billion against pre-Trump forecasts, thanks to those same tax cuts.
Job creation? It kicked off strong, with 2.3 million jobs added in the first two years. Almost 7 million jobs were created nationwide, including a shiny 500,000 in manufacturing. However, the job market showed signs of weakness in 2025, adding only 584,000 jobs, the lowest growth outside a recession since 2003.
But by September 2020, jobs were still 2.7% below January 2017 levels. Talk about a roller coaster! And then there was the manufacturing sector, which saw employment drop by 0.5% year-over-year in December 2025. It was like a game of Whack-a-Mole, where one job popped up, but another went down.
Unemployment rates hit a record low of 3.5%, which felt like a win. But lest we forget, it was still 1.4 percentage points lower than CBO’s pre-election projections.
The jobless rate was at historic lows for various demographic groups too, but it’s hard to celebrate when the job growth slowed to a crawl in the second term. For businesses navigating these uncertain times, workers compensation and other insurance protections became increasingly critical as employers faced mounting liability concerns.
Now, let’s talk tax cuts. Corporate tax receipts plummeted by 31%, adding fuel to a growing deficit fire, with the FY2018 deficit a staggering 60% higher than expected. Federal budget deficits significantly increased during his term, showcasing the challenges of fiscal responsibility.
Debt projections shot up by $3.7 trillion for the 2017-2027 period. That’s a serious number. More debt, less revenue. Brilliant strategy, right?
Middle-class families did see a nice bump in income—nearly $6,000. But, when compared to the last two years of Obama, Trump’s gains were like a flash in the pan.
Plus, deregulation promised a boost that never quite materialized.
Tariffs? They soared, with a net of $71 billion in FY2019. Yet, manufacturing jobs kept disappearing like socks in a dryer.
